Can Hydrogen-Fueled Vehicles Leave EVs

hydrogen car

The joint effort among Honda and GM to foster hydrogen vehicles, Toyota's continuous help for hydrogen innovation, and the potential for retrofitting conventional gas motors to run on hydrogen could lead some to scrutinize the future feasibility of electric vehicles.

Hydrogen Conversion Kits vs. Electric Cars: Reliability Concerns

Despite the availability of conversion kits in Europe that transform gas-powered cars to hydrogen, drivers have limited their adoption due to reliability issues. These modifications have often resulted in less dependable vehicles, contrasting sharply with the more reliable performance of electric cars equipped with hydrogen fuel cells.

Toyota has developed a unique hydrogen engine that will run more reliably on hydrogen than a converted gas engine. Still, it will need more performance advantages than the more common fuel cell approach. Both types of power have one massive problem: there is no hydrogen infrastructure, and hydrogen generators aren’t cheap.

Let’s talk about hydrogen-powered cars this week. Then, we’ll close with my Product of the Week — a car out of Switzerland called the Microlino. It could be the perfect electric for situations when electric cars work best: short hops.


Hydrogen vs. Electric Cars


Hydrogen is a better choice to power a car than a battery on paper. This superiority stems from the fact that, in most implementations, you get the attributes of an electric vehicle, which is an exceptionally reliable motor, and you don’t get the worst part, which is the battery.

Much like gas tanks, they don’t wear out — although older ones did rust out if you didn’t take care of them. Hydrogen tanks would be no different because they last indefinitely if maintained properly.

In both cases, fuel delivery systems need to be maintained, and since hydrogen typically is supplied in liquid form, it is under pressure, which adds to the cost and complexity vs. gas; it is still potentially far more dependable than batteries are today.


Toyota's Approach: Balancing ICE Experience


Toyota’s approach of using a unique internal combustion engine (ICE) is interesting because you get the ICE experience (engine sound, etc.). Still, you get the complexity of that engine type, as well.

Internal combustion engines are far less dependable than electric motors because they are more complex. But, if you are used to a gas car, this experience should be similar. The Toyota approach is the best bet for someone who wants that gas car to roar and feel. 


Electric Motor Sound: Natural vs. Artificial 


To get a similar experience from an electric motor, you typically have to add engine sounds artificially, a solution that, to date, hasn’t been exceedingly popular. Both BMW and the first Fisker did this with mixed results. Electric car owners typically get over the need for sound quickly, particularly when they experience the benefits of massive torque and acceleration from an electric car.

So, you are talking about where most automakers take hydrogen into fuel cell cars on paper. In that case, the hydrogen-powered vehicle is far superior to the electric battery.



But Hydrogen Has a Huge Problem


What made Tesla work is the massive investment the company made in an electric ecosystem combined with the rapid introduction of low-cost Level 2 chargers that allowed you to charge up at home.

You can get Level 2 electric chargers for under $300 and a good flex charger like the one I use, the ChargePoint Home Flex Charger for under $600.

With the expansion of public chargers, the United States saw over 53,000 charging locations by 2022, as reported by Statista. This expansion indicates that despite issues with the reliability of public chargers, their availability is substantial, and they are being installed at an increasing rate. California alone has over 44,000 of these charging stations.

In comparison, there are currently 111,000 gas stations across the U.S., so we are about 50% of the way to parity if you don’t consider many of these stations are often out of service.

Compare that to only 58 public hydrogen refueling stations in the U.S., with 57 in California. So good luck getting fuelled in any other state in the U.S.


Future Fuelling: Hydrogen vs. Electric Infrastructure


Projections suggest there will be as many as 4,300 hydrogen fuel stations in the U.S. by 2030, but most of these are for commercial use. That’s still a tiny fraction of what we have with electric charging stations today, and there aren’t enough public charging stations.

So, with nearly 1,000 times the number of projected charging locations, electric battery-powered cars are approaching the same advantage that gas cars now have when it comes to fuelling locations — or they would if these charging stations were more dependable.

Still, the number is far higher than hydrogen. Current forecasts have us at 35 million electric car chargers by 2030. Granted, most will be in homes, but that’s still a massive number.


Home Hydrogen Fuelling and Infrastructure Hurdles


But what about home hydrogen fuel? Well, that’s going to be a problem.

A home hydrogen generator not only needs electricity to power it, but it also needs water, making it harder to install, and it costs around $12,000. So, while you can fuel up at home much like you can charge an electric car, the cost of the fuelling system is prohibitively expensive.

The cost of the hydrogen generator itself isn’t the only problem. Fully charging an electric car is around $10, while fuelling a hydrogen car is closer to $75. Driving approximately 60 miles would cost around $4 for an electric and closer to $15 for a hydrogen car.


Challenges in Hydrogen Fuelling Infrastructure


Currently, hydrogen has a similar problem with fuelling that electric cars have with charging, but it could be better regarding ecosystem availability and fuel cost. The only way around this is to build a massive, low-cost hydrogen fuelling infrastructure like Tesla did for EVs, but no one is that for commercial hydrogen vehicles.

This situation is why GM and Honda focus their efforts in that direction. Toyota is nuts because it seems unlikely it’ll be able to fund the fuelling infrastructure it needs outside of Japan. Toyota could make this work in Japan, though in 2022, there were only 250 stations there.


Wrapping Up


It costs around $1.9 million to build a hydrogen fuelling station. Even if you could reduce that cost by $800,000 — by converting an existing gas station instead of building from scratch — to approach where electric charging stations are today, you would need 53,000 of them. That cost comes to over $58 trillion for the U.S. alone, and Toyota is only valued at around $273 billion, meaning it’ll need a ton of government help to build out the ecosystem.
By the way, this contrasts the $7.5 billion estimate to build out the EV charging ecosystem in the U.S. with 500,000 additional chargers.

Advancements in Battery Technology and Range Records


Battery technology has languished for much of the last century and is advancing quickly. The Chinese electric car company Zeekr advertises over 640 miles of range (the electric cars from China are setting range records) for a car costing under $40,000, within striking distance of the Toyota Mirai hydrogen-powered car, with an impressive 845 tested range. 

Challenges for Consumer Hydrogen Vehicles


You can make commercial hydrogen vehicles work with a superior range, depot fuelling stations, and a limited number of long-haul fuel stops. But consumer vehicles? Nope. The math doesn’t work, so Toyota’s impressive effort will likely fail.
Given how far we’ve come with battery electrics, it’s just too late to switch to hydrogen because the cost of the switch is beyond what even governments are willing to pay to get it done.
 
M. UMAR

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